The Federal Government has warned that ongoing global oil market instability, compounded by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, is placing Nigeria’s economy at risk.
Farouk Ahmed, CEO of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), stated this on Tuesday at the State House in Abuja during the Meet-the-Press briefing organised by the Presidential Communications Team.
He explained that while declining oil product prices may appear beneficial to consumers, they pose a serious threat to Nigeria’s oil-reliant economy. “As consumers, we are happy that the price is coming down, but…as a nation, it’s not good for our economy because our revenue inflow is also impacted,” Ahmed said.
Citing policy unpredictability from Trump’s administration, Ahmed noted that abrupt shifts — such as sudden tariff impositions or reversals — have destabilised the global economy and disrupted crude oil pricing. He referenced a sharp one-day price drop from $73 to $60 per barrel as an example of how quickly Nigeria’s oil revenue can be affected.
Ahmed stressed that additional domestic issues, such as pipeline vandalism and declining oil production, have further worsened the situation. He pointed to recent OPEC data showing Nigeria’s daily oil output has dropped to about 1.4 million barrels.
He also blamed Trump's aggressive trade policies — including sweeping tariffs on China and other countries — for creating widespread economic uncertainty, which has affected oil demand and prices. These erratic policies have made it difficult for global investors and traders to plan long-term, forcing many into short-term day trading due to market unpredictability.
Ahmed said, “Crude oil and petrol product prices continue on a downward trajectory due to these inconsistencies. One of the major drivers is the U.S. government’s aspiration under President Trump to push prices down, even below $50 a barrel, through increased local production.”
He acknowledged the benefit of lower prices for Nigerian consumers but reiterated that reduced global oil prices hurt national revenue. “If the price drops by $10 per barrel, the resulting loss in revenue severely affects our economy, reserves, and the naira’s strength,” he said.
Ahmed also disclosed that Nigeria’s petrol imports have dropped significantly—from 44.6 million litres per day in August 2024 to just 14.7 million litres by April 13, 2025. This 67% fall coincided with a 670% rise in local production, driven by the phased restart of the Port Harcourt Refining Company and modular refinery output.
By early April, local refineries produced 26.2 million litres daily, up from 3.4 million litres in September 2024. However, the combined national petrol supply only exceeded the government’s 50 million litres/day benchmark twice: in November (56 million litres) and February (52.3 million litres). March saw a slight drop to 51.5 million litres, and April's first half averaged just 40.9 million litres.
The NMDPRA supply tracker showed the contribution breakdown from three major PMS sources: Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the Dangote Refinery, and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).
OMCs increased imports from 22 million litres/day in October 2024 to around 30 million litres in December, now supplying 55–60% of national demand. Dangote Refinery's deliveries rose from 10 million litres/day in October to 22 million in January/February before dipping to 18 million litres by mid-April — currently meeting about 40% of daily needs. NNPCL’s supply, which stood at 24 million litres/day in October, dropped to 1 million litres in January and none after February.
Ahmed clarified that import licenses are issued based on the country's supply needs. On refining, he noted that 10 refineries—six private and four public—now contribute a combined 1.12 million barrels per day (bpd) capacity. The Dangote Refinery alone processes 650,000 bpd.
Other private modular refineries include Aradel (11,000 bpd), OPAC (10,000 bpd), Waltersmith (5,000 bpd), Duport Midstream (2,500 bpd), and Edo Refining (1,000 bpd). Public refineries operated by NNPCL include Port Harcourt (150,000 bpd), Warri (125,000 bpd), Kaduna (110,000 bpd), and the old Port Harcourt unit (60,000 bpd).
So far, the NMDPRA has issued 47 licenses to establish refineries (totaling 1.75 million bpd), 30 licenses to construct (1.23 million bpd), and only four licenses to operate, covering a combined 27,000 bpd of steady output.
Ahmed added that five LTC (License to Construct) projects with a total capacity of 689,500 bpd are either being commissioned or under construction. These include the Dangote Refinery, AIPCC Energy’s 30,000 bpd plant, and Waltersmith’s 5,000 bpd second train.
