The pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could soon drop to around N800 per litre, following a decline in global crude oil prices and the revival of Nigeria’s naira-for-crude arrangement with local refiners. Oil marketers and industry analysts shared this projection on Wednesday.
The anticipated drop aligns with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s decision to cut its ex-depot price to N835 per litre, its second reduction within a week and third in six weeks. This marks a 3.5% drop from N865 per litre announced six days ago and a N45 reduction from the N880 per litre set the previous Wednesday.
A statement by Dangote Group’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, confirmed the latest price cut, stating it reflects the refinery’s commitment to supplying high-quality fuel at affordable prices. The new rate includes statutory charges by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The updated pricing sheet indicates that petrol at the refinery's gantry now sells for N835/litre, while coastal sales remain suspended. Diesel is priced at $608 with a $70 surcharge, payable in naira at N1,650/$ or in USD. Jet fuel is set at $664.75, with additional surcharges. Cooking gas prices are on hold.
Retail Prices by Region:
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Lagos: N890/litre (down from N920)
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South-West: N900/litre (from N930)
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North-West/North-Central: N910/litre (from N940)
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South-East/South-South/North-East: N920/litre (from N950)
Dangote’s key distributors—MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde, and Tecno Oil—will implement these revised prices.
Chiejina noted that this move would trigger broader economic relief, reduce inflationary pressure, and support growth, especially during the Easter season. He added that the refinery has ample supply for domestic demand and surplus for export, which could also help boost Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves.
Earlier in the week,we hinted at a price cut after the landing cost of imported petrol dropped to N853/litre, a N3 fall from Monday’s figure. Documents from the Nigerian Ports Authority and Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria revealed that marketers imported 117,000 metric tonnes (156.9 million litres) of petrol between April 8 and 16 via Tin Can Port (Lagos) and Calabar Port (Cross River).
The on-the-spot cost at NPSC-NOJ terminal also declined to N853.12/litre, while the 30-day average dropped to N844.84/litre.
The recent adjustments are linked to the reinstated naira-for-crude deal, which was suspended earlier but has now resumed fully. The Ministry of Finance, in a statement titled “Update on the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira Initiative”, described the policy as a long-term strategy to reduce reliance on forex and promote local refining.
Industry Reactions:
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Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), said the falling crude price and the naira-for-crude policy are key factors driving price reductions. He suggested that petrol prices could drop to N650–N700/litre if crude falls to $50 per barrel.
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Olatide Jeremiah, an oil and gas expert, noted that the combination of crude oil decline and the local deal presents a "double-edged advantage" for Nigerians. He said the resumed naira-for-crude policy ended the pricing monopoly of private depot owners and forced competition, which benefits consumers.
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However, Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), warned that frequent price adjustments are creating instability in the downstream sector.
Despite the positive developments, marketers have yet to reflect the reduced costs at the retail level in many parts of the country. Analysts believe continued price pressure may eventually force a drop in retail pump prices.
